The Conference Board(R) Australia Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Australia Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for January 2008

NEW YORK, March 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Australia declined 0.3 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in January.

-- The leading index declined in January, following five consecutive
monthly increases in the index. Negative contributions from share
prices, the yield spread and building approvals more than offset
positive contributions from money supply, gross operating surplus and
rural goods exports. The leading index increased 2.6 percent (a 5.3
percent annual rate) from July 2007 to January 2008, up from its
six-month growth rate of 1.1 percent (a 2.2 percent annual rate) for
the previous six months, but the strengths among its components have
become less widespread in recent months.
-- The coincident index increased for the third straight month in January.
Employed persons continued to make the largest positive contribution to
the index. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index has
continued to slow, decreasing to 0.8 percent (a 1.5 percent annual
rate) from July 2007 to January 2008, from 1.3 percent (a 2.7 percent
annual rate) at the start of the fourth quarter of 2007, while the
strengths among the coincident indicators have become balanced with the
weaknesses in recent months.
-- The leading index has weakened slightly over the past couple of months,
after growing at a fairly strong pace in the second half of 2007, and
the strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread.
Meanwhile, the coincident index has continued to increase, although its
growth rate has gradually slowed. Real GDP growth slowed to a 2.4
percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from an average annual
rate of 4.4 percent for the first three quarters of 2007. The current
behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth should
continue in the near term, though probably at a more moderate pace.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in the leading index increased in January. The positive contributors to the index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are money supply*, gross operating surplus*, and rural goods exports*. Share prices, the yield spread, building approvals*, and the sales to inventories ratio declined.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in January, the leading index now stands at 185.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.6 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the leading index increased 2.6 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components in the coincident index increased in January. The increases -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- occurred in employed persons, retail trade, and household gross disposable income*. Industrial production* declined in January.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in January, the coincident index now stands at 144.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in December and increased 0.1 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident index increased 0.8 percent, with two of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on March 24, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2007 2008 6-month
Nov Dec Jan Jul to Jan
Leading index 186.2 r 186.3 p 185.7 p
Percent Change 0.6 0.1 p -0.3 p 2.6 p
Diffusion 64.3 50.0 42.9 57.1

Coincident Index 144.1 p 144.3 p 144.5 p
Percent Change 0.1 p 0.1 p 0.1 p 0.8 p
Diffusion 50.0 50.0 75.0 50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All rights reserved

The next release is scheduled for Monday, April 28, 2008 at 8:00 P.M. (EDT)

In Australia - April 29, 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (AEST)

Source: The Conference Board

CONTACT: Professional Contacts at The Conference Board, Indicator
Program, +1-212-339-0330, or Media Contacts, Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231,
or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232

Web site: http://www.conference-board.org/

2008-03-26 17:02:50 0320615 PRNEWSWIRE