The Conference Board(R) Korea Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Korea Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for February 2008

NEW YORK, April 10 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Korea declined 1.3 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.4 percent in February.

-- The leading index declined sharply in February, but January's decline
was revised up due to large upward data revisions to value of machinery
orders and the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments in the
manufacturing sector. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading
indicators have become more widespread this month and the only positive
contributions came from its financial components: stock prices and
yield on government public bonds. With February's decrease, the growth
rate of the leading index has slowed, to a 0.9 percent rate (a 1.7
percent annual rate) between August 2007 to February 2008, well below
the 5.1 percent rate (about a 10.5 percent annual rate) reached between
April to October 2007.

-- The coincident index increased in February following a small decline in
January, and the strengths among the coincident indicators have been
widespread in recent months. However, the six-month growth rate for
the index continued to slow, to 1.1 percent (a 2.1 percent annual rate)
from August 2007 to February 2008, down from the most recent peak of
2.6 percent (about a 5.3 percent annual rate) in mid- 2007.

-- The leading index peaked in October 2007, and it has been on a downward
trend in the past four months as a result of widespread weakness among
its components. In addition, the growth of the coincident index also
moderated somewhat in recent months. At the same time, real GDP grew
at about a 6.2 percent average annual rate during the second half of
2007 (revised), slightly above the 5.5 percent average annual rate over
the previous two quarters. The recent behavior of both the leading
and coincident indexes so far still suggests that economic activity
should continue growing, but probably at a more moderate rate, in the
near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors -- from the larger positive contributor to the smaller -- were the (inverted) yield of government public bonds and stock prices. Negative contributors -- from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- were value of machinery orders, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, private construction orders, letter of credit arrivals, and real exports FOB.

With the 1.3 percent decrease in February, the leading index now stands at 176.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in January and declined 1.2 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the leading index increased 0.9 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in February. The positive contributors to the leading index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- were monthly cash earnings, industrial production, and the wholesale and retail sales component. Total employment remained unchanged in February.

With the 0.4 percent increase in February, the coincident index now stands at 171.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in January and increased 0.9 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the coincident index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide range of business challenges. The Board's Economics Program is a recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.

This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please contact Customer Service at 212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2007 2008 6-month
Dec Jan Feb Aug to Feb

Leading index 178.0 r 178.9 r 176.5
Percent Change -1.2 r 0.5 r -1.3 0.9
Diffusion 28.6 r 42.9 r 28.6 71.4

Coincident Index 171.5 r 171.1 171.7 p
Percent Change 0.9 r -0.2 r 0.4 p 1.1 p
Diffusion 75.0 62.5 87.5 100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

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www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 9:00 P.M. (ET)
In Korea -- Friday, May 9, 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (KOR)

First Call Analyst:
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Source: The Conference Board

CONTACT: Professional Contacts at The Conference Board, Indicator
Program, +1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org, or Media, Frank
Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232

Web site: http://www.conference-board.org/
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci

2008-04-10 21:04:41 0333585 PRNEWSWIRE