The Conference Board(R) Australia Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Australia Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for February 2008

NEW YORK, April 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Australia declined 0.2 percent and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in February.

-- The leading index declined for the third consecutive month in February.
Building approvals, share prices and the yield spread continued to make
negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting
positive contributions from money supply (adjusted for inflation) and
rural goods exports. As a result, the six-month growth rate in the
leading index has slowed to 1.8 percent (a 3.6 percent annual rate),
down from 2.6 percent (a 5.3 percent annual rate) in the six-month
period from June 2007 to December 2007. In addition, the strengths
among the leading indicators have become less widespread in recent
months.
-- The coincident index increased in February, the third increase in the
past four months. Employment continued to make the largest positive
contribution to the coincident index, more than offsetting negative
contributions from the remaining components in recent months. The six- month growth rate in the coincident index has continued to slow,
decreasing to 0.2 percent (a 0.4 percent annual rate) from August 2007
to February 2008, down sharply from 2.0 percent (about a 4.0 percent
annual rate) from February to August 2007.
-- The leading index has declined moderately in early 2008, after growing
at a fairly strong pace during the second half of 2007, and the
strengths among its components have become less widespread. Meanwhile,
the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, has
marginally increased since the middle of 2007, after growing steadily
over the previous year. Real GDP growth slowed to a 2.4 percent annual
rate in the fourth quarter of 2007, down from an average annual rate of
3.9 percent for the second and third quarters. The current behavior of
the composite indexes so far suggests that a more moderate pace of
economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in the leading index increased in February. The positive contributors to the index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are money supply*, rural goods exports*, and gross operating surplus*. Building approvals*, the yield spread, and share prices declined, while the sales to inventories ratio* remained unchanged in February.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in February, the leading index now stands at 184.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in January and declined 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components in the coincident index increased in February. The increase occurred in employed persons. Retail trade, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production* declined in February.

With the increase of 0.1 percent in February, the coincident index now stands at 144.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in January and increased 0.1 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with one of four components in the series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on April 25, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

The next release is scheduled for May 28, 2008 at 8:00 P.M. (ET)

In Australia -- May 29, 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (AEST)

Source: The Conference Board

CONTACT: Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, or media, Frank Tortorici,
+1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, both of The Conference
Board

Web site: http://www.conference-board.org/

2008-04-28 20:06:07 0347050 PRNEWSWIRE